Forecasting WTI crude oil futures returns: Does the term structure help?
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Forecasting the volatility of crude oil futures using intraday data
We use the information in intraday data to forecast the volatility of crude oil at a horizon of 1 to 66 days using a variety of models relying on the decomposition of realized variance in its positive or negative (semivariances) part and its continuous or discontinuous part (jumps). We show the importance of these decompositions in predictive regressions using a number of specifications. Nevert...
متن کاملRisk premia in crude oil futures prices
If commercial producers or financial investors use futures contracts to hedge against commodity price risk, the arbitrageurs who take the other side of the contracts may receive compensation for their assumption of nondiversifiable risk in the form of positive expected returns from their positions. We show that this interaction can produce an affine factor structure to commodity futures prices,...
متن کاملForecasting Crude Oil Price Volatility
We use high-frequency intra-day realized volatility to evaluate the relative forecasting performance of several models for the volatility of crude oil daily spot returns. Our objective is to evaluate the predictive ability of time-invariant and Markov switching GARCH models over different horizons. Using Carasco, Hu and Ploberger (2014) test for regime switching in the mean and variance of the ...
متن کاملForecasting Model for Crude Oil Price Using Artificial Neural Networks and Commodity Futures Prices
This paper presents a model based on multilayer feedforward neural network to forecast crude oil spot price direction in the short-term, up to three days ahead. A great deal of attention was paid on finding the optimal ANN model structure. In addition, several methods of data pre-processing were tested. Our approach is to create a benchmark based on lagged value of pre-processed spot price, the...
متن کاملDo Oil Futures Prices Help Predict Future Oil Prices?
2004 and by more than 40% since the beginning of 2005.Though the U.S. economy has apparently absorbed this supply shock well so far, the path of future oil prices remains a concern for monetary policymakers. Higher oil prices can damp demand, as consumers and firms spend more of their budgets on oil-related products and less on other goods and services. Furthermore, if higher oil prices are pas...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Energy Economics
سال: 2021
ISSN: 0140-9883
DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105350